This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing sixgunsout’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
sixgunsout | training | published before 2020 | 169 | 42 |
sixgunsout | validation | published 2020 | 18 | 5 |
sixgunsout | test | published after 2020 | 10 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
sixgunsout | CMON Global Limited | 9.5% | 0.3% | 32.04 |
sixgunsout | Days Of Wonder | 3.6% | 0.2% | 21.12 |
sixgunsout | Has Miniatures | 26.6% | 1.8% | 14.52 |
sixgunsout | Renegade Game Studios | 4.1% | 0.4% | 10.84 |
sixgunsout | Asmodee | 23.7% | 2.5% | 9.62 |
sixgunsout | Square Grid | 7.1% | 1.0% | 7.38 |
sixgunsout | Games With Solitaire Rules | 29.6% | 5.1% | 5.85 |
sixgunsout | Deck Bag And Pool Building | 15.4% | 3.1% | 4.89 |
sixgunsout | Cooperative Game | 28.4% | 6.1% | 4.69 |
sixgunsout | Variable Player Powers | 51.5% | 11.7% | 4.39 |
sixgunsout | Player Elimination | 13.6% | 3.4% | 4.06 |
sixgunsout | Fantasy | 38.5% | 11.7% | 3.29 |
sixgunsout | Open Drafting | 24.3% | 8.2% | 2.94 |
sixgunsout | Ravensburger | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.69 |
sixgunsout | Wargame | 5.9% | 18.8% | 0.32 |
sixgunsout | Simulation | 1.2% | 10.2% | 0.12 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.961 | no |
2 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.955 | yes |
3 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.946 | yes |
4 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.890 | no |
5 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.883 | yes |
6 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.882 | yes |
7 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.868 | yes |
8 | 2014 | 155068 | Arcadia Quest | 0.786 | yes |
9 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.780 | yes |
10 | 2014 | 157354 | Five Tribes | 0.749 | yes |
11 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.733 | no |
12 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.714 | yes |
13 | 2012 | 113924 | Zombicide | 0.708 | yes |
14 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.699 | no |
15 | 2005 | 15062 | Shadows over Camelot | 0.674 | yes |
16 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.673 | no |
17 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.635 | no |
18 | 2018 | 224710 | Zombicide: Green Horde | 0.626 | yes |
19 | 2009 | 40692 | Small World | 0.617 | yes |
20 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.599 | yes |
21 | 2019 | 265736 | Tiny Towns | 0.599 | yes |
22 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.586 | yes |
23 | 2017 | 195539 | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | 0.578 | no |
24 | 2017 | 226320 | My Little Scythe | 0.556 | no |
25 | 2018 | 237182 | Root | 0.552 | no |
26 | 2019 | 295564 | Unmatched Game System | 0.539 | no |
27 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.537 | no |
28 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.522 | no |
29 | 2017 | 179803 | Arcadia Quest: Inferno | 0.521 | no |
30 | 2016 | 148261 | SeaFall | 0.509 | no |
31 | 2019 | 248065 | Zombicide: Invader | 0.498 | yes |
32 | 2011 | 83330 | Mansions of Madness | 0.491 | no |
33 | 2016 | 195856 | Bloodborne: The Card Game | 0.480 | no |
34 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.469 | no |
35 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.457 | no |
36 | 2013 | 133528 | City of Remnants | 0.448 | no |
37 | 2018 | 230253 | Star Realms: Frontiers | 0.447 | no |
38 | 2015 | 163967 | Tiny Epic Galaxies | 0.443 | yes |
39 | 2019 | 251723 | Zombicide: Dark Side | 0.442 | no |
40 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.441 | yes |
41 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.436 | no |
42 | 2017 | 197070 | Massive Darkness | 0.435 | yes |
43 | 2018 | 222509 | Lords of Hellas | 0.422 | no |
44 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.422 | no |
45 | 2018 | 257321 | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | 0.415 | no |
46 | 2019 | 283863 | The Magnificent | 0.411 | no |
47 | 2006 | 25417 | BattleLore | 0.404 | no |
48 | 2017 | 181524 | Masmorra: Dungeons of Arcadia | 0.385 | no |
49 | 2016 | 201808 | Clank!: A Deck-Building Adventure | 0.366 | yes |
50 | 2015 | 155969 | Harbour | 0.364 | no |
51 | 2019 | 257283 | Tiny Epic Mechs | 0.363 | yes |
52 | 2017 | 221107 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | 0.360 | yes |
53 | 2018 | 244536 | Tiny Epic Zombies | 0.360 | yes |
54 | 2018 | 209324 | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | 0.344 | no |
55 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.340 | yes |
56 | 2015 | 155708 | Tiny Epic Defenders | 0.339 | no |
57 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.332 | no |
58 | 2016 | 156858 | Black Orchestra | 0.329 | no |
59 | 2016 | 190400 | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | 0.327 | no |
60 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.325 | no |
61 | 2016 | 286447 | Ultra Tiny Epic Kingdoms | 0.321 | no |
62 | 2018 | 250561 | Kick-Ass: The Board Game | 0.308 | no |
63 | 2019 | 274637 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume One | 0.306 | no |
64 | 2019 | 276025 | Maracaibo | 0.306 | no |
65 | 2012 | 124708 | Mice and Mystics | 0.305 | no |
66 | 2019 | 272409 | Tiny Epic Tactics | 0.304 | no |
67 | 2018 | 192296 | The Pirate Republic | 0.302 | no |
68 | 2018 | 253106 | Narcos: The Board Game | 0.302 | no |
69 | 2013 | 136063 | Forbidden Desert | 0.298 | yes |
70 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.296 | no |
71 | 1994 | 18 | RoboRally | 0.295 | no |
72 | 2018 | 167355 | Nemesis | 0.294 | no |
73 | 2019 | 233868 | HATE | 0.291 | no |
74 | 2019 | 219217 | Arena: The Contest | 0.290 | yes |
75 | 2019 | 169427 | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 | 0.287 | no |
76 | 2008 | 37046 | Ghost Stories | 0.285 | no |
77 | 2017 | 234487 | Altiplano | 0.284 | no |
78 | 2017 | 232979 | Richard the Lionheart | 0.283 | no |
79 | 2004 | 10547 | Betrayal at House on the Hill | 0.282 | yes |
80 | 2015 | 181530 | Runebound (Third Edition) | 0.279 | yes |
81 | 2011 | 105134 | Risk Legacy | 0.279 | no |
82 | 2018 | 170604 | Renegade | 0.278 | no |
83 | 2014 | 157958 | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | 0.273 | no |
84 | 2018 | 207243 | The City of Kings | 0.268 | no |
85 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.266 | yes |
86 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.262 | yes |
87 | 2015 | 176189 | Zombicide: Black Plague | 0.256 | yes |
88 | 1980 | 4746 | Dungeons & Dragons Computer Labyrinth Game | 0.256 | no |
89 | 2017 | 192135 | Too Many Bones | 0.255 | no |
90 | 2019 | 278120 | God of War: The Card Game | 0.254 | no |
91 | 2017 | 197376 | Charterstone | 0.251 | no |
92 | 2009 | 54998 | Cyclades | 0.250 | no |
93 | 2018 | 240196 | Betrayal Legacy | 0.249 | no |
94 | 2017 | 215312 | Stop Thief! | 0.245 | no |
95 | 2017 | 221805 | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | 0.245 | no |
96 | 2010 | 65200 | Asteroyds | 0.242 | no |
97 | 2019 | 281259 | The Isle of Cats | 0.240 | yes |
98 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.237 | no |
99 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.237 | no |
100 | 2019 | 274638 | Unmatched: Robin Hood vs. Bigfoot | 0.235 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.92 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.79 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think sixgunsout is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.961 | no |
2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.890 | no |
2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.733 | no |
2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.699 | no |
2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.673 | no |
What games does the model think sixgunsout is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2015 | 159406 | Portal: The Uncooperative Cake Acquisition Game | 0.002 | yes |
2009 | 46213 | Telestrations | 0.002 | yes |
2000 | 822 | Carcassonne | 0.002 | yes |
2013 | 139443 | Superfight | 0.002 | yes |
2017 | 217531 | Wizards Wanted | 0.003 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Zombicide | City of Remnants | Arcadia Quest | Blood Rage | Scythe | Gloomhaven | Rising Sun | Aftermath |
2 | Android: Netrunner | Forbidden Desert | Five Tribes | Tiny Epic Galaxies | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Zombicide: Green Horde | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
3 | Space Cadets | Kings of Air and Steam | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Harbour | Star Wars: Rebellion | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Root | Last Bastion |
4 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Room 25 | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | Tiny Epic Defenders | SeaFall | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | Newton | Tapestry |
5 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Tiny Epic Kingdoms | Runebound (Third Edition) | Bloodborne: The Card Game | My Little Scythe | Star Realms: Frontiers | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
6 | Mice and Mystics | Cappuccino | King of New York | Zombicide: Black Plague | Clank!: A Deck-Building Adventure | Arcadia Quest: Inferno | Everdell | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
7 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Rise of the Runelords – Base Set | Splendor | Metal Adventures | Black Orchestra | Spirit Island | Lords of Hellas | Tiny Towns |
8 | Kemet | Relic Runners | Hyperborea | Specter Ops | Aventuria: Adventure Card Game | Massive Darkness | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
9 | Ascension: Immortal Heroes | Ascension: Rise of Vigil | Black Fleet | Risk: Europe | Ultra Tiny Epic Kingdoms | Masmorra: Dungeons of Arcadia | Tiny Epic Zombies | Unmatched Game System |
10 | Shadows over Camelot: The Card Game | Zpocalypse | AquaSphere | 504 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | Zombicide: Invader |
11 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Glass Road | Spurs: A Tale in the Old West | Kingdom Death: Monster | Terraforming Mars | Altiplano | Kick-Ass: The Board Game | Zombicide: Dark Side |
12 | Clash of Cultures | The Doom That Came to Atlantic City | Xia: Legends of a Drift System | Thunderbirds | Aeon's End | Richard the Lionheart | The Pirate Republic | The Magnificent |
13 | Terra Mystica | Impulse | Patchwork | Bastion | Inis | Fallout | Narcos: The Board Game | Tiny Epic Mechs |
14 | Keyflower | Firefly: The Game | Sons of Anarchy: Men of Mayhem | Grimslingers | Tiny Epic Western | Too Many Bones | Heroes of Terrinoth | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume One |
15 | Smash Up | Eldritch Horror | Imperial Settlers | Burgle Bros. | Covert | Charterstone | Nemesis | Maracaibo |
16 | Seasons | Gravwell: Escape from the 9th Dimension | Dragon's Hoard | Super Dungeon Explore: Forgotten King | Hit Z Road | Stop Thief! | Renegade | Tiny Epic Tactics |
17 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | Outfoxed! | FUSE | Explorers of the North Sea | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | The City of Kings | HATE |
18 | Il Vecchio | BANG! The Dice Game | Dead of Winter: A Crossroads Game | V-Wars | Krosmaster Arena 2.0 | Raxxon | Betrayal Legacy | Arena: The Contest |
19 | Archipelago | World of Tanks: Rush | Legendary Encounters: An Alien Deck Building Game | Mombasa | Crazy Karts | Downforce | New Frontiers | Middara: Unintentional Malum – Act 1 |
20 | Libertalia | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Three Kingdoms Redux | T.I.M.E Stories | Pandemic: Reign of Cthulhu | Dragon Castle | Neon Gods | God of War: The Card Game |
21 | Zug um Zug: Deutschland | Berserk: Knights and Villains | Gaïa | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | New Angeles | Sagrada | Heroes of Land, Air & Sea | The Isle of Cats |
22 | Uncharted: The Board Game | Coal Baron | La Isla | Grand Austria Hotel | Perdition's Mouth: Abyssal Rift | Sub Terra | Fireball Island: The Curse of Vul-Kar | Unmatched: Robin Hood vs. Bigfoot |
23 | Starship Merchants | Dungeon Twister: The Card Game | Ultimate Werewolf | Best Treehouse Ever | Citadels | Rum & Bones: Second Tide | Architects of the West Kingdom | Power Rangers: Heroes of the Grid |
24 | Love Letter | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | Colt Express | Council of 4 | Mistfall: Heart of the Mists | Sword & Sorcery | Book of Dragons | Era: Medieval Age |
25 | The Resistance: Avalon | Pizza Party | Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Skull & Shackles – Base Set | Exploding Kittens | The Oracle of Delphi | Wendake | A Song of Ice & Fire: Tabletop Miniatures Game – Stark vs Lannister Starter Set | Victorian Masterminds |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
sixgunsout | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.864 |
sixgunsout | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.764 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.779 | yes |
2020 | 296237 | Warp's Edge | 0.420 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.398 | yes |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.335 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.331 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.321 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.303 | no |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.303 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.301 | no |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.255 | no |
2020 | 309630 | Small World of Warcraft | 0.252 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.251 | no |
2020 | 309110 | Food Chain Island | 0.248 | no |
2020 | 280794 | Etherfields | 0.248 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.240 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.232 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.227 | yes |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.215 | no |
2020 | 293556 | Gloomy Graves | 0.208 | no |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.197 | no |
2020 | 252153 | Tang Garden | 0.196 | no |
2020 | 317105 | Tiny Epic Galaxies BLAST OFF! | 0.182 | no |
2020 | 236861 | Full Moon Jacket | 0.170 | no |
2020 | 291508 | Tiny Epic Dinosaurs | 0.167 | no |
2020 | 298047 | Marvel United | 0.165 | yes |
2020 | 304434 | Victim: The Cursed Forest | 0.154 | no |
2020 | 306735 | Under Falling Skies | 0.153 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.147 | no |
2020 | 262274 | D6: Dungeons, Dudes, Dames, Danger, Dice and Dragons! | 0.144 | yes |
2020 | 257001 | Munchkin Dungeon | 0.143 | no |
2020 | 257145 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: City Fall | 0.138 | no |
2020 | 318472 | Blood Bowl: Second Season Edition | 0.135 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.130 | no |
2020 | 318084 | Furnace | 0.126 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.120 | no |
2020 | 316750 | The Princess Bride Adventure Book Game | 0.115 | no |
2020 | 273703 | Altar Quest | 0.110 | no |
2020 | 302809 | Betrayal at Mystery Mansion | 0.109 | no |
2020 | 297030 | Tekhenu: Obelisk of the Sun | 0.107 | no |
2020 | 293141 | King of Tokyo: Dark Edition | 0.101 | yes |
2020 | 271055 | Dwellings of Eldervale | 0.096 | yes |
2020 | 302723 | Forgotten Waters | 0.093 | yes |
2020 | 248125 | Monumental | 0.092 | no |
2020 | 283095 | Cosmic Colonies | 0.092 | no |
2020 | 306040 | Merv: The Heart of the Silk Road | 0.089 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.088 | no |
2020 | 236713 | Sea of Plunder | 0.087 | no |
2020 | 263192 | Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Adventures: Change is Constant | 0.087 | no |
2020 | 304420 | Bonfire | 0.087 | no |
2020 | 262208 | Dungeon Drop | 0.086 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.849 | no |
2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.793 | no |
2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.661 | no |
2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.567 | no |
2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.440 | no |
2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.438 | no |
2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.431 | no |
2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.363 | no |
2021 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.355 | no |
2021 | 331787 | Tiny Epic Dungeons | 0.338 | no |
2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.320 | no |
2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.315 | no |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.298 | no |
2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.288 | no |
2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.267 | no |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.263 | no |
2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.255 | no |
2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.250 | no |
2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.244 | no |
2021 | 332075 | Warhammer Quest: Cursed City | 0.243 | no |
2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.239 | no |
2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.230 | no |
2022 | 284842 | So, You've Been Eaten | 0.225 | no |
2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.225 | no |
2021 | 299566 | Batman: The Animated Series Adventures – Shadow of the Bat | 0.218 | no |
2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.215 | no |
2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.212 | no |
2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.204 | no |
2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.198 | no |
2023 | 351817 | Marvel Zombies: A Zombicide Game | 0.191 | no |
2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.182 | no |
2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.182 | no |
2021 | 309430 | Tiny Epic Pirates | 0.178 | yes |
2022 | 281258 | Sub Terra II: Inferno's Edge | 0.168 | no |
2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.167 | no |
2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.141 | no |
2022 | 275284 | Arkeis | 0.114 | no |
2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.113 | no |
2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.110 | no |
2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.110 | no |
2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.108 | no |
2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.104 | no |
2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.099 | no |
2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.098 | no |
2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.097 | no |
2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.097 | no |
2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.095 | no |
2021 | 298383 | Golem | 0.095 | no |
2021 | 343562 | Horrified: American Monsters | 0.090 | no |
2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.089 | no |
2021 | 280984 | Ruins: Death Binder | 0.088 | no |
2021 | 287608 | Epic Card Game: Duels | 0.087 | no |
2022 | 356033 | Libertalia: Winds of Galecrest | 0.087 | no |
2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.085 | no |
2022 | 311823 | Nova Aetas Renaissance | 0.085 | no |
2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.082 | no |
2022 | 288080 | Dice Realms | 0.078 | no |
2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.076 | no |
2022 | 342444 | Black Rose Wars: Rebirth | 0.075 | no |
2021 | 316786 | Tabannusi: Builders of Ur | 0.075 | no |
2022 | 333255 | Keep the Heroes Out! | 0.071 | no |
2021 | 331212 | Aeon's End: Legacy of Gravehold | 0.070 | no |
2021 | 346603 | Hungry Little Demons | 0.070 | no |
2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.069 | no |
2022 | 281474 | Lands of Galzyr | 0.069 | no |
2021 | 316080 | KeyForge: Dark Tidings | 0.067 | no |
2021 | 335541 | We Care: a Grizzled Game | 0.066 | no |
2022 | 252315 | The Everrain | 0.066 | no |
2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.064 | yes |
2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.063 | no |
2022 | 338460 | The Isle of Cats: Explore & Draw | 0.063 | no |
2021 | 277080 | Titans | 0.062 | no |
2021 | 310100 | Nemesis: Lockdown | 0.062 | no |
2021 | 247585 | Waste Knights: Second Edition | 0.060 | no |
2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.059 | no |
2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.059 | no |
2022 | 345584 | Mindbug | 0.058 | no |
2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.058 | no |
2021 | 247417 | Solomon Kane | 0.058 | no |
2021 | 224793 | Gascony's Legacy | 0.058 | no |
2021 | 239189 | Chronicle X | 0.057 | no |
2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.057 | no |
2021 | 348461 | Castle Break | 0.053 | no |
2021 | 285192 | Destinies | 0.053 | no |
2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.053 | no |
2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.052 | no |
2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.052 | no |
2022 | 318838 | Quests & Cannons: The Risen Islands | 0.052 | no |
2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.051 | no |
2022 | 300217 | Merchants of the Dark Road | 0.051 | no |
2022 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.050 | no |
2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.049 | no |
2021 | 339263 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition): Starter Set | 0.049 | no |
2021 | 333539 | The Siege of Runedar | 0.047 | no |
2021 | 332800 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition) | 0.046 | no |
2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.046 | no |
2021 | 260934 | Ignite | 0.045 | no |
2023 | 337627 | Voidfall | 0.045 | no |
2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.044 | no |
2022 | 337098 | Lords of Vaala: Dragonbond | 0.043 | no |